Ghosts of peace agreements past, Part IV

Posted: March 23, 2015 in Uncategorized

bong mendoza's blog

Logo of Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)

What may be prove to be satisfactory to a rebel side, especially in the early aftermath of a peace deal, may be less than what is provided by the letter of the same deal.  However, such acceptance sets a path dependent trajectory for both sides.  For the rebel, it may reinforce the earlier tendency to accept less since (returning to) fighting is more costly.  For the government side, it will have no incentive to give more than what satisfies the rebel. The ARMM did not flow from the 1996 FPA but Misuari accepted it and even became ARMM chairman.  The regional government appeared to be the best gain of the MNLF from the 1996 FPA.  Only upon later reflection will dissatisfaction over the ARMM be expressed by Misuari and his closest men.

This pattern will be evident in the concessions the MNLF…

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